Is the national fibre optic project paying off in Kenya?

It appears that the national fibre optic national project might be paying off if statistics for the April-June 2009 from CCK are anything to go by. As at end of June 2009, the number of Internet subscribers in Kenya grew to 1.82 million, from 1.52 million as at end of March 2009. This is a 20 per cent growth rate in the Internet subscriber base!

Looking closely at the data collected by CCK, most of these growth is attributed to mobile data/Internet subscribers, due to the aggressive roll out of data services by the major mobile operators.

This can be explained by the table where I have extracted what is interesting.

Indicator	Dec-08	March-09	June-09
Number of leased line customers	1,809	2,002	2,789
Number of dial up customers	7,846	6,902	7,231
Number of mobile data/Internet subscribers	392,964	1,674,948	1,801,876
Number of Internet subscribers	407,845	1,713,852	1,824,203

 Source: CCK Database

This perhaps explain results of an earlier study undertaken early this year to investigate factors that determine Internet utilization among teachers and their students in selected schools that had Internet connectivity in Kenya.

The study showed the extent to which the Internet is utilized and identified the factors that enhanced or impeded its utilization at this level of education, and which can be used to explain the integration of Internet into the teaching and learning.

The findings of the study shows use of Internet and its integration in the teaching and learning in secondary education is getting more widespread; and its use more pervasive among students and teachers as a means of communication and for information searching being common; and the least use in some instances for course content delivery, assignments and continuous assessments.

Access rates for teachers and students were observed to be much higher in educational institutions that have made effective ICT investments in education.

The study also found that most of the schools are actually expending a substantial part of their annual budget on maintaining Internet connectivity, and this explains why it is estimated by the Ministry of Education that only 3% of the 6,566 secondary schools in Kenya have any form of Internet connectivity. But this could change with the enhancement of the competition regulatory framework as well as operationalization of the National Fibre Optic cable to boost Internet penetration and bring the cost of Internet connectivity down in the third quarter of 2009 (a very far fetched idea now that data operators are not changing their pricing of data bundles till they recoup their initial investments).

There was a positive correlation between proportions of students and teachers accessing the schools’ computers, and this was evident in girls only schools where it appeared that investments in ICT was low and resulting in gender disparity disadvantaging the girl child. This does not portend good news for the girls in the secondary schools, considering that there are 635,698 girls enrolled, constituting 46% of the country’s 1,382,211 total student enrolment in secondary schools. Though the study focussed on schools with Internet connectivity, the proportion of teachers with access to computers and internet at schools and homes was respectively 98% and 53% of the teachers sampled, implying that the affordable bundle rates and increased access to the mobile wireless broadband services is having an impact. According to the Communications Commission of Kenya (CCK) there were 392,964 mobile broadband users as at 31 December 2008 . Some of the schools sampled were addressing the issue of accessibility to computers by its teachers and students through use of Wi-Fi in the school localities. This is also reflected at the proportion of teachers and students with email addresses which are at 92% and 64% respectively, with 72% of the students owning mobile phones.

Zain to roll out 3G in mid-2010

Zain looks determined to venture into the 3G technological platform in an industry long held by Safaricom. Should Zain afford to pay the Kes. 2 billion (USD 25 million) for the licensing cost of the spectrum to CCK, it will become the second mobile phone operator in Kenya to roll out 3G.

The cost of setting up of 3G network infrastructure has been prohibitive for new entrants into the Kenyan market, with current statistics from CCK’s April-June 2009 report indicating that as at 30 June 2009 there were 17.4 million mobile subscribers. With this sort of growth being witnessed in the country, it is quite disappointing to note that even despite registering a growth in Internet users subscriber base, from 1.52 million in March 2009 to 1.82 million in June 2009, we are still a long way from achieving affordable Internet access as the fibre optic national infrastructure nears completion.

Most of this growth in Internet subscribers can be attributed to the new purchases of Safaricom’s broadband modem that run on 3G network. This accounted for nearly 60% of the growth, with Internet access via leased lines contributing 39% in the same period. Only one of the major data operators has dropped the price of the international bandwidth, and even offering 4 megabytes of bandwidth at the current price it is charging 1 megabyte. The other operators, in the true Kenyan capitalist spirit said they require at least 2 years to recoup the billions sank into the project.

But in my opinion, Zain (Celtel or whatever) has been always extremely slow in responding to the market trends, and mid next 2010 will be too late for them, as Safaricom keeps on getting “better”.